Feb 17, 2023 · Over the course of the 2022 NFL Season, the model predicted every game from Week 4 to the Super Bowl. Additionally, I bet a theoretical $10 on every game based on what the model suggested and the closing line on Fanduel Sportsbook.

Dec 12, 2024 · To date, our model has correctly picked 70.2% of games, the eighth most accurate of models tracked here. This page contains our 2024 NFL model including power rankings and simulated championship odds , and model accuracy and …

Identify value in NFL game & team odds using data-driven betting models. Includes win probabilities and expected value.

nfelo is a prediction model built on top of 538's Elo framework that uses unique dynamics about the NFL to improve prediction accuracy. It is one of the (if not the!) most accurate public models available on the internet. The tables below show model performance for 538, nfelo, and the Vegas line across a variety of measures.

Using play-by-play data, player grades, and market information to power some of the interenet's most accurate picks and power rankings. Projected winners, confidence pool picks, and expected value calculations. Weekly power rankings for every team, including advanced metrics, pythagorean wins, and more.

Aug 22, 2024 · An NFL predictive model is a data-driven approach used to forecast the outcomes of NFL games. These models analyze historical data, player statistics, team metrics, and various other factors to predict game results.

This, dear reader, is my attempt to save you those ten years by explaining the foundation of credibility theory; the mixed model. To illustrate the concept, we’re going to build a model to predict NFL quarterbacks’ Expected Points Added (EPA) per game.

Feb 11, 2025 · With our tool, you can find OVER or UNDER picks for various player props available today, alongside a calculated win percentage and graded “edge.” If you aren’t already signed up to get our best props today, you can below or continue reading for more information.

Sep 13, 2024 · In this article, I’ll explain the introduction to building the ‘Excel LADZ - NFL Model’. By the end, you’ll be able to understand the core principles behind the model, including how to simulate a single game and predict a winner using Attack and Defense Ratings.

Use FTN's NFL betting model to find the top edges on sides & totals on the week's NFL slate. The model runs 10,000 simulations for every game!